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news.The market for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is expected to experience very modest expansion, rising from $420m in 2014 to $550m by 2024, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.72%, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.
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According to the company’s latest report, this slight increase in sales, which will occur across the seven major markets (7MM) of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan, will follow the market entry of several targeted therapies by 2024.
GlobalData analyst covering oncology Melina Reisenberg says the development of new treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma has been challenging, and no new drugs have entered the arena since the launch of Nexavar in 2007.
Reisenberg explains: "In 2014, the market was predominantly driven by sales of this drug, which is the standard of care for patients with advanced forms of the disease."
"Between 2020 and 2022, key patents of Nexavar are expected to expire in the 7MM, meaning the drug’s patient share will erode following the launch of lower-priced, generic sorafenib. This is part of the reason that hepatocellular carcinoma treatment market growth is forecast to be so low."
The analyst adds that there are serious challenges which face the development of new therapies for this indication, including having to conduct trials in patients more prone to toxicity problems, and producing a higher standard of care than Nexavar in the first-line setting.
Despite these substantial obstacles, there will be various positive drivers of market growth, such as the development of a second-line treatment setting for Nexavar-refractory patients, which will have the largest impact on the hepatocellular carcinoma arena.
Reisenberg continues: "There are currently 10 Phase III pipeline agents profiled in the report, five of which are targeting Nexavar-refractory patients. If approved, these products could help to reduce the effect of Nexavar-refractory patent expiry, and allow at least some growth to occur during the forecast period.
"However, there have been many high-profile Phase III trial failures since the launch of Nexavar in 2007, and should the aforementioned second-line treatments fail to launch in the 7MM, the hepatocellular carcinoma treatment market would be unlikely to reach the forecast value by 2024."